A groundbreaking study conducted by lecturers from the Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science at the University of Ghana has shaken up political discussions ahead of the 2024 general elections. Led by Professor Ezekiel Nortey, the team boldly forecasted which regions the two major political parties in Ghana, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC), are likely to capture.
During a detailed lecture titled “Assessing Swing Constituencies in Ghana: Empirical Evidence from the 2016 and 2020 General Election,” Professor Nortey and his colleagues Dr. Richard Minkah, Dr. Kwame Asah Asante, and Mr. Edmund Fosu Agyeman—predicted that the NPP, led by President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, would only secure victory in six out of the 16 regions in the upcoming elections. In contrast, the NDC, led by former President John Dramani Mahama, is expected to capture 10 regions, giving them a major advantage.
The study was based on empirical evidence from the 2016 and 2020 elections, analyzing patterns of voter behavior and swing constituencies that have shifted between the two parties. The data was meticulously gathered, and the results are startling for the political landscape.
According to the study, the NDC is projected to win 10 regions, with the following percentage breakdowns:
Western Region: 50.91%
Western North: 49.26%
Greater Accra: 55.25%
Volta Region: 81.79%
Oti Region: 61.34%
Bono East: 56.71%
Savannah Region: 61.34%
Northern Region: 49.54%
Upper East: 67.91%
Upper West: 69.36%
Meanwhile, the NPP is likely to win in just six regions:
Central Region: 50.25%
Eastern Region: 59.67%
Ashanti Region: 69.82%
Ahafo Region: 54.75%
Bono Region: 56.18%
North East Region: 53.07%
The analysis didn’t stop at raw predictions but went deeper into the mechanics behind voting trends. The team focused on two main factors influencing the results the “gain effect” and the “swing effect.” The gain effect measures the additional votes each party can expect based on past performances. In contrast, the swing effect captures votes that are essentially “stolen” from one party by the other, particularly in regions where both parties have a competitive presence.
The study revealed that the NDC had notable gains in the following regions:
Upper West: 6.28%
Western Region: 4.61%
Upper East: 4.36%
Greater Accra: 4.28%
Ashanti Region: 2.75%
Bono Region: 2.01%
Bono East: 1.91%
Eastern Region: 1.49%
On the other hand, the NPP gained in regions like:
Northern Region: 4.27%
Volta Region: 3.24%
North East Region: 1.95%
Savannah Region: 1.78%
Western North: 1.54%
Oti Region: 1.26%
Interestingly, in the Ahafo Region, both the NDC and NPP saw slight losses, with the NDC losing 0.11% and the NPP losing 0.28% of their vote share.
When it comes to the “net swing effect,” which is crucial in determining which party is more likely to steal votes from their opposition, the NDC again came out on top. The NDC’s net swing effects were significant in these regions:
Western Region: 4.76%
Upper West: 4.71%
Greater Accra: 4.27%
Upper East: 3.23%
Ashanti Region: 2.97%
Bono Region: 2.04%
Bono East: 2.01%
Central Region: 1.83%
Eastern Region: 1.58%
Ahafo Region: 0.08%
For the NPP, the significant net swing effects were observed in:
Northern Region: 3.60%
Volta Region: 3.04%
Western North: 1.99%
North East Region: 1.74%
Savannah Region: 1.39%
Oti Region: 1.12%
All these swing effects were found to be statistically significant, except in the Ahafo Region. This analysis presents a grim picture for the NPP, as they are set to face an uphill battle in several regions, with their strongholds becoming more contested by the NDC.
This study, while providing insight into voting trends, is a forecast based on data from previous elections and should be taken into consideration as just one of the many factors that will influence the 2024 elections. However, if these predictions hold true, the NDC is poised to dominate the political landscape in Ghana, potentially reshaping the country’s future for the next few years.
