As the 2024 parliamentary elections approach, the Ayawaso West Wuogon constituency in the Greater Accra Region has once again become a focal point of political intrigue.
The constituency, known for its diverse electorate, has seen intense competition between the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) over the years.
In the upcoming elections, the battle between the incumbent Member of Parliament Lydia Alhassan of the NPP and the NDC’s John Dumelo is set to capture national attention.
Historical election trends (1992-2020)
Since the return to multiparty democracy in 1992, Ayawaso West Wuogon has been predominantly a stronghold for the NPP.
Below is a summary of the election results from 1992 to 2020:
1992: The first parliamentary election after the return to democracy was boycotted by the NPP, leading to an easy win for the NDC.
1996: NPP gained control with George Isaac Amoo defeating NDC’s Kojo Yankah. The margin was narrow, but it marked the beginning of NPP’s dominance in the constituency.
2000: George Isaac Amoo retained the seat for NPP, increasing the party’s hold on the constituency.
2004 and 2008: The NPP continued its dominance with Akosua Frema Osei-Opare, who is currently Ghana’s Chief of Staff, winning both elections with significant margins.
2012: Emmanuel Kyeremanteng Agyarko, the late husband of Lydia Alhassan, retained the seat for NPP with a comfortable margin.
2016: Kyeremanteng Agyarko again won with a substantial lead over the NDC candidate.
2019 (By-Election): Following the passing of Kyeremanteng Agyarko, Lydia Alhassan won the by-election, continuing the NPP’s dominance despite a controversial electoral process marred by violence.
2020: John Dumelo made his first attempt to capture the seat for the NDC, but Lydia Alhassan narrowly defeated him, securing 39,851 votes (50.37%) against Dumelo’s 37,778 votes (47.74%). This marked one of the closest contests in the constituency’s recent history.
Analytical insights
Urbanisation and demographics: Ayawaso West Wuogon is an urban constituency, home to a significant student population, professionals, and a growing middle class.
The University of Ghana is located within this constituency, making youth and student votes critical.
The NPP has historically performed well among the middle class and professionals, but the more dynamic youth vote has shown a tendency to swing, making it a crucial factor in the 2024 elections.
- Economic factors: Economic concerns, including unemployment, inflation, and housing issues, have become central to voter concerns.
The NDC’s focus on these issues, particularly under the charismatic leadership of John Dumelo, has resonated with younger voters and those disillusioned by the status quo.
- Celebrity influence: John Dumelo’s status as a popular actor and philanthropist has added a unique dimension to his political appeal. His grassroots campaigns and active social media presence have enabled him to connect with voters in ways that traditional politicians may not.
- Incumbency advantage: Lydia Alhassan benefits from the incumbency advantage, including access to resources and strong party machinery.
However, her close margin of victory in 2020 suggests that her hold on the seat is far from secure.
The 2024 parliamentary election in Ayawaso West Wuogon is poised to be one of the most competitive in recent history.
While the NPP has historically dominated the constituency, the narrow margin of victory in 2020 indicates a growing challenge from the NDC.
John Dumelo’s celebrity status, coupled with shifting demographics and economic concerns, could potentially turn the tide in his favour.
However, Lydia Alhassan’s incumbency and the NPP’s established presence in the constituency cannot be underestimated.
As the campaign season heats up, both candidates will need to intensify their efforts to win over undecided voters and solidify their bases.
The outcome will not only be a reflection of the candidates’ appeal but also a broader indicator of the political mood in one of Ghana’s most closely watched constituencies.
